ANALISIS HARMONIK DAN VALIDASI SISTEM PREDIKSI PASANG SURUT MENGGUNAKAN DATA STASIUN SEKUPANG DAN KABIL TAHUN 2024

Abstract

Tides are periodic variations in sea level caused by the gravitational forces of the Moon and the Sun, as well as the Earth's rotation. Accurate tidal information is essential for maritime activities, including navigation, port operations, fisheries, coastal management, and disaster mitigation. This study aims to analyze tidal characteristics and validate a tidal prediction model using harmonic analysis based on tidal observation data from the Sekupang and Kabil tidal stations in 2024. Hourly tidal observations were analyzed using the T_TIDE toolbox implemented in MATLAB to determine the principal harmonic constituents, their amplitudes, and phases. The resulting harmonic constants were used to generate tidal predictions, which were validated against observed tidal elevations using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient. The results show that both stations have mixed predominantly semidiurnal tides, with Formzahl values of 0.5792 at Sekupang and 0.8430 at Kabil. The prediction model achieved an RMSE of 7.28 cm and a correlation coefficient of 0.9945 at Sekupang, while Kabil obtained an RMSE of 11.03 cm and a correlation coefficient of 0.9829. These results demonstrate that the T_TIDE harmonic analysis approach provides reliable tidal predictions and effectively characterizes tidal conditions in Batam waters.